Recently, the reporter conducted a survey on the container inverted short market and found that the current domestic container truck market is mainly fuel-heavy trucks with four emissions. Combined with the current truck trade-in policy in many places in China, especially in Beijing, Shanghai and other places, the applicable models have been expanded from China III to China IV, and many truck customers are considering replacing vehicles.
At present, the main scenario of electric heavy truck application is short-distance transportation of resource-based goods such as coal, sand and gravel, ore, etc., which has played a good demonstration role. What is the next tuyere market for electric heavy trucks?
▍Usage scenarios
Container is an internationally standardized transport carrier, has established a complete set of transport system, can be applied to the global ocean transport, inland river transport, railway transport, road transport, and can achieve a variety of ways of combined transport, reduce the repeated loading and unloading of goods damage, turnaround time, loading and unloading costs, etc., greatly improve the efficiency of multimodal transport. Container short-term transportation refers to the transportation between ports, railway freight stations and customer warehouses and logistics company warehouses. In terms of transportation distance, 70% are within 150 kilometers; 25% within 150-400 km; 5% above 400 km; The road is all paved with almost no mud potholes. Container short-term transportation does not have high requirements for timeliness, 150 kilometers is about 3 hours, 400 kilometers is about 7 hours.
At present, the container short market has entered the stage of fierce competition, and the freight rate is calculated according to the number of trips, and more than 150 kilometers are calculated according to the number of kilometers, which is about 6 yuan/km. In order to save highway fees, many drivers will take national highways and provincial roads, and only in very congested sections will they choose to take a section of high-speed; In terms of cargo weight, there is usually no overloading. Containers have strict total mass requirements, this is because the port machinery of the port, the gantry crane of the railway and other spreaders only grasp the four corners of the container. If the container is seriously overloaded, there will be a collapse accident during the lifting process. According to the requirements of container standardization: 20-foot container weight 2.32 tons, cargo weight 17.9 tons, total weight 20.32 tons, 40-foot container weight 3.8 tons, cargo weight 26.68 tons, total weight 30.48 tons.
▍Applicable models
To transport 1 20-foot container, 4×2 tractors (7 tons) + 2 axle trailers (4 tons) are required, and the total weight of the 4-axle train is 36 tons; The transportation of one 40-foot container requires 4×2 tractors (7 tons) + 3-axle trailers (5.5 tons) with a total weight of 43 tons for 5-axle trains, and the transportation of two 20-foot containers at the same time requires 6×4 tractors (8 tons) + 3-axle trailers (5.5 tons) with a total weight of 49 tons for 6-axle trains. It is hereby clarified that if these two 20-foot containers are all fully loaded, the total weight is 40.6 tons, and the total weight of the 6-axle train is 54.1 tons, which exceeds the regulatory requirements and cannot be on the high speed. When the truck is picked, the dispatcher will choose a slightly lighter 20-foot container, as long as the total weight of the train is less than 51.4 tons, it can be on the high speed (3% error is allowed). Since the container transport vehicle is not overloaded, and the average speed is 60km/h, there is no need for a high-horsepower tractor, and the engine has a displacement of 11 liters and a maximum power of 420 horsepower.
At present, container transportation heavy trucks are mainly China IV models
The survey found that at present, the trucks across the country are mainly national four models, with an average age of 8 years and a maximum engine power of about 400 horsepower, mainly heavy trucks produced in 2014-2017 and eliminated from long-distance trunk transportation. Among them, the proportion of 6×2 tractors exceeds 30%, because after the implementation of GB1589-2016 "Dimensions, axle loads and mass limits of automobiles, trailers and automobile trains" in July 2016, the maximum total mass of 6-axle semi-trailer trains of 6×2 tractors + 3-axle trailers is 46 tons, which is 3 tons less than that of 6×4 tractors + 3-axle trailers; In addition, the expressway toll by axle implemented in 2020. Many 6×2 tractors gradually withdrew from long-distance transportation and began to exert their residual heat in the container inversion market.
Among the heavy trucks transported by containers, 6×2 tractors accounted for more than 30%
▍Policy environment
In March 2024, the State Council issued a notice on the "Action Plan for Promoting Large-scale Equipment Renewal and Trade-in of Consumer Goods", which will become a new driving force for the national economy in 2024. On July 30, 2024, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance issued the Notice on the Implementation of the Scrapping and Renewal of Old Operating Trucks, which will subsidize diesel trucks that are scrapped in advance and newly purchased with China VI emission standards or new energy trucks, and only newly purchased eligible new energy trucks. At present, Beijing and Shanghai have expanded the applicable models from China III to China IV, of which the maximum subsidy for replacing new energy heavy trucks in Shanghai is 280,000 yuan, which will surely stimulate the sales of new energy heavy trucks.
"Road-to-rail" + container intermodal transport to improve transportation efficiency. The picture shows a special container for grain
With the implementation of the country's "road to rail", the types of container transport goods have been expanded to coal, sand and gravel, ore, grain (special) and other bulk goods, which has greatly promoted the development of the container market, estimated: at present, the domestic container transport vehicles are about 50,000 units, mainly driving around the city. From the perspective of reducing urban pollution, many cities will introduce policies to support the replacement of new energy heavy trucks.
The 6-axle semi-trailer train can transport 1 x 40-foot container or 2 x 20-foot container
▍TCO analysis
From 2023 to 2024, as the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries continues to decline, the price of 423kWh 6×4 electric heavy truck has dropped from 700,000 yuan to 500,000 yuan, and the price of 282kWh 4×2 electric heavy truck has dropped from 540,000 yuan to 380,000 yuan. According to the calculation of the replacement subsidy for the trade-in of the national three trucks in 2024, after the subsidy of 80,000 yuan, the price of electric heavy trucks is basically the same as that of LNG heavy trucks, and 60,000-80,000 yuan more expensive than diesel heavy trucks.
According to the survey data, the current fuel consumption of container trucks is 33-35 liters/100 kilometers (taking national highways and provincial roads), and the fuel cost per kilometer is 2.5 yuan/km according to the current diesel price of 7.4 yuan/liter. After replacing with an electric heavy truck, the power consumption of the vehicle per kilometer is 1.2-1.4kWh, and if the team builds its own charging station, the price per kilowatt-hour is about 0.6 yuan, and the electricity cost per kilometer is about 0.8 yuan/km; If you charge at a public charging station, the price per kilowatt-hour is about 1.1 yuan, and the electricity fee per kilometer is about 1.4 yuan/km.
According to the survey data, the annual mileage of container trucks is 80,000-100,000 kilometers, and if you build your own charging station, electric heavy trucks can save 136,000-170,000 yuan per year; If a public charging station is used, the electric heavy truck can save 88,000-110,000 yuan per year. According to the above calculations, in 2024, by replacing the old with an electric heavy truck, the price difference between it and the diesel heavy truck can be made up in 10 months, and the cost can be recovered in 2-3 years. After 3 years, the profitability of electric heavy truck operations is much higher than that of diesel heavy trucks.
According to the analysis of the above four dimensions, the container shortening market is about to enter the era of electric heavy trucks, and qualified users should seize the 2024 trade-in subsidy policy to complete the vehicle replacement as soon as possible and seize the new opportunities in the container shortening market. (Source: Merchant Car Bang)